As the general elections come closer, TheNigerian having observed the trend, the campaigns and the reception received by the various presidential candidates in the different states they have campaigned, it is evident that the presidential candidate of the All Progressive Congress (APC) and incumbent president, Muhammadu Buhari would win the presidential elections with a landslide.
The various indices for the victory of President Muhammadu are self-evident and with a sterling performance in the past three years of the administration. The war against corruption and the security of lives and properties are some of the strong points of President Muhammadu Buhari which in the opinion of TheNigerian would translate to electoral victory.
President Muhammadu Buhari still has a firm grip of his traditional base North West Nigeria. His acceptance and cult-like following in this region presents an electoral advantage as the case in the 2015 elections. Same goes for the North East region that witnessed numerous security challenges. The sterling performance in bringing lasting peace to the North East region also presents another electoral advantage over his main challenger, Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP).
TheNigerian forecasts that Atiku Abubakar would perform poorly in the North East region because of factors related to his neglect of the region while he held sway as Vice President from 1999 – 2007. This factor worked against him all the while he sought the highest office in the country. Atiku Abubakar has not been accepted, and there is a likelihood of a repeat of such in favor of President Muhammadu Buhari.
President Muhammadu Buhari also enjoys tremendous support in the North Central as evident in the mammoth crowd at the campaigns in Plateau state. TheNigerian notes that Plateau has not been a traditionally strong base for President Muhammadu Buhari in times past, but the efforts of the government in bringing lasting peace to the state has endeared him to the people. This is also another electoral advantage for President Muhammadu Buhari going by the voting pattern in North Central. From previous election results, Plateau state holds the ace for other states in North Central Nigeria. States like Taraba, Nasarawa, Benue, and Kogi tend to go alongside Plateau during elections.
The South West region presents a unique advantage for President Muhammadu Buhari for factors such as his vice, Yemi Osinbajo coming from that region, as well as the strong influence of APC chieftain, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu. States like Ekiti, Osun, Ondo and Ogun states are already in the bag for President Muhammadu Buhari. Lagos state would also be delivered to the APC as in previous elections and also with the political patronage it has received from the federal government since 2015.
The opposition from the South-South region would not change the electoral fortunes of President Muhammadu Buhari because of the presence of some political heavyweights who have switched camp from the PDP to the APC.
In states like Akwa Ibom, it would be a split between both parties, and the same goes for Cross River, and Rivers states. In the South East, the rejection of the vice presidential candidates of the People’s Democratic Party, Peter Obi by his kin would give the PDP a disadvantage at the polls.
TheNigerian notes that traditionally, the South East states vote for the government in power as evident in all previous elections in the country. This has been the case since 2003 and would also be the case in the 2019 elections. There has been a strategic pact between the South East states and the federal government during elections. TheNigerian sees a repeat of such strategic alliance in the 2019 elections.
TheNigerian after a careful analysis of the various indices that influences elections in Nigeria, it is, therefore, our considered opinion that President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressive Congress (APC) would emerge victorious at the polls.
TheNigerian, therefore, gives it to President Muhammadu Buhari of the APC as the winner of the 2019 general elections. The PDP challenger, Atiku Abubakar does not enjoy the backing of the North that is a critical component in every presidential election in Nigeria.
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